Vaquill is a legal publication house that simplifies legal information and publishes content in multiple Indian languages.

What languages does Vaquill publish in?

Vaquill publishes content in English, Hindi, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu, and Bangla.

Trump 2.0 - A New Era for the U.S., the World, and India?

Introduction: Trump’s Political Journey – A Tale of Two Presidencies

Donald Trump’s entry into U.S. politics was nothing short of revolutionary. From being a business tycoon and reality TV star to becoming the 45th President of the United States in 2016, Trump broke the rules of politics and created a style of leadership that still has different opinions around the world. During his time in office from 2017 to 2021, he changed how the U.S. interacted with other countries, making a permanent impact on international relations, trade, and defense.

With his possible return in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, the world is at a big turning point. During his first term, there were a lot of surprises, trade battles, and changes in who teams up with whom around the globe. If Trump gets elected again, he says he will stick to his “America First” ideas, which could change how countries interact with each other all over again.

Trump's time as president was a mixed bag for India. On one hand, it brought stronger defense partnerships and better strategic connections. On the other hand, there were some economic issues that created tension. This blog will explore what happened during Trump's first term, what might happen if he gets a second term, and how it could affect both India and the rest of the world.

Trump’s First Term (2017–2021): A Global Disruption

Trump’s time as president was marked by his daring and sometimes controversial choices. Let’s take a closer look at how he changed both American domestic policies and international relations. His presidency shook things up, broke traditional rules, and changed the way countries interacted with each other, affecting everyone around the world.

1. Trade Wars and Economic Policy

Trump’s economic strategy revolved around protecting American industries. His administration imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth over $360 billion, triggering a trade war that reflected across global markets.

India wasn’t exempt. Trump criticized India’s trade barriers, labeling it the “tariff king,” and revoked its preferential trade benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). While this created tensions, it also pushed India to diversify its trade relationships.

U.S. GDP grew at an average rate of 2.5% during his tenure, slightly below expectations. Tax cuts under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act stimulated business investments but increased national debt.

2. Foreign Policy: America First

Trump’s approach to foreign policy was transactional. He withdrew from major international agreements, including:

The Paris Climate Accord, referring to unfair terms for U.S. industries.
The Iran Nuclear Deal, labeling it inadequate for containing Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership, focusing instead on bilateral deals.

He also built stronger relationships with Israel by using the Abraham Accords (maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East and around the world based on mutual understanding) and did some really surprising things, like having meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

3. Relations with India

India-U.S. ties witnessed highs and lows during Trump’s first term:

Highs: Defense collaboration increased, with arms deals worth over $3 billion and key agreements like COMCASA (Communications, Compatibility, Security Agreement) increasing military cooperation.
Lows: Trump’s criticism of India’s trade practices and immigration policies, especially tighter H1-B visa rules, marked economic ties.

The 2024 Election: The Return of Trump?

The 2024 election might be a chance for Trump to come back to the White House. He became the first Republican President after 2004 and just the second since 1988 to receive more popular votes than his opponent in the election. With this backing, he gathered over 74 million votes and secured 312 electoral votes. In comparison, his opponent, Democrat Kamala Harris, managed to get only 71 million votes and 226 electoral votes. What was especially impressive was that Trump won decisively in all seven battleground states (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), which totaled 93 electoral votes, whereas he had only won North Carolina (16 electoral votes) in 2020.

The results clearly show that, despite what the mainstream media said about a close race, the concerns raised by Trump about the economy, illegal immigration, and the U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts really connected with regular Americans. On the other hand, Kamala Harris's focus on issues like abortion rights, saving democracy, and the legal troubles facing Trump didn’t seem to get enough voters in her direction. Trump not only gained support in red and swing states but also received more votes than in 2020 from traditionally blue states like California, New York, and others in the Northeast.

With many people unhappy with how things are going under Biden, Trump is counting on his dedicated supporters. Conclusively, Trump’s campaign was focusing on nationalism and changing the economy for the better. He’s got a stronger message this time, saying he wants to “finish the work” he started during his first term.

But the stakes are higher this time. The world has changed since 2016. Global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have reshaped geopolitics. India, too, stands at a critical point, looking to balance its relationships with the U.S., China, and Russia.

What the World Can Expect from Trump 2.0

A second Trump term could further disrupt the global order.

Economic Policies:
There will likely be more trade wars, and new targets could be the European Union and India. Trump might focus even more on getting manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., which could change how global supply chains work.
Alliances and Agreements:
a) Trump could start criticizing NATO and the UN again.
b) Climate change teamwork might struggle because Trump had previously weakened environmental rules.
Focus on the Indo-Pacific:
Trump's approach to China supports India's strategic plans. The Quad alliance, consisting of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, could become more active in standing up to China's aggression in the area.

What It Means for India

For India, Trump’s re-election could bring both opportunities and challenges:

Opportunities:
- Defense Collaboration: Trump’s attention to military partnerships might lead to more defense deals with India, boosting its military strength.
- Strategic Partnerships: As both countries share concerns about China's increasing influence, it could strengthen the relationship between India and the United States.
Challenges:
- Trade Issues: Trump's focus on getting what he wants in trade could create situations that could harm industries in India.
- Immigration Policy: Tighter H1-B visa regulations could impact Indian professionals working in the U.S.

India’s Strategic Dilemma: Challenges or Opportunities?

India has a unique role as a rising economy and a counterweight to China, which makes its relationship with the U.S. very important. With Trump in charge, India might try to become more independent in trade and explore new partnerships in defense and technology. However, there could still be economic issues that need careful diplomatic efforts to deal with the challenges.

Trump’s Two Terms: A Comparison

Here’s the table converted to Markdown format:

Aspect	First Term	Potential Second Term
Trade	Focused on China with extensive tariffs.	Expansion of trade wars, possibly targeting allies like India and the EU.
India Relations	Strengthened defense ties but economic friction.	Deeper Indo-Pacific strategies; harsher trade negotiations.
Climate Policy	Withdrew from the Paris Accord.	Likely rewrite of Biden’s environmental policies.
Foreign Relations	Prioritized Israel and non-traditional allies.	Possible further retreat from multilateralism.

The Big Picture: A World of Opportunities and Uncertainty

If Trump comes back to power, his time as president might be filled with daring decisions and surprising results. For India, this could open up more chances in defense and global politics, but it might also bring tougher economic challenges. Around the world, the power dynamics could shift even more, with the U.S. stepping back from leading in international cooperation.

Trump's leadership style is controversial, but it certainly encourages nations like India to reevaluate their strategies. We can only wait to find out if this will create new possibilities or lead to more obstacles.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How did Trump impact India during his first term?

Strengthened defense ties but criticized India’s trade policies and tariffs.

What could Trump’s second term mean for the world?

A stronger focus on nationalism, potential trade conflicts, and Indo-Pacific strategies.

How did Trump impact India’s economy?

He pressured India to reduce tariffs and criticized its trade policies but strengthened defense ties.

How could Trump’s re-election benefit India?

Strengthened Quad alliances, defense partnerships, and energy deals could benefit India.

What are the risks of a second Trump term?

Increased trade protectionism and reduced global cooperation on climate and trade.

References:

Written by Rishita Baman

Rishita is a law graduate with a passion for simplifying legal concepts. She writes engaging blogs on the Constitution, IPC, CrPC, CPC, and corporate law, with a focus on making complex topics easy to understand for everyone. Hope you found some valuable legal insights in the blog—thanks for reading.